If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home on the New Hampshire Seacoast this year, you’ve probably been keeping an eye on interest rates. Although the Federal Reserve’s decisions don’t directly impact mortgage rates, interest rate changes can ripple through the economy, affecting the housing market.
Understanding these connections can help you make smarter decisions about your next move.
The good news is that rates have come down from their 2024 peaks. The Fed has also indicated that it’s unlikely to increase interest rates anytime soon, which would make borrowing more expensive.
Let’s break down what’s happening with interest rates nationally and how those changes are playing out right here in communities like Rye, Portsmouth, Hampton, and North Hampton.
Note: Article published January 2026.
The Fed Hit Pause on Interest Rate Changes in Late January
The Federal Reserve made headlines on January 28, 2026, when it decided to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. This decision came after three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025 that brought rates down from higher levels.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that after lowering rates at the previous three meetings, policymakers “see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals.”
The decision reflected a Federal Open Market Committee that’s carefully watching economic data before making its next move.
The Fed is Likely to Hold on Immediate Interest Rate Changes
At the time of this writing, market expectations suggest the Fed will likely hold rates steady again when it meets in March. CME Fed Watch gave a high probability of no change according to data from late January.
No one can predict the future. However, for homebuyers and sellers on the Seacoast, this means mortgage rates will probably stay in a relatively stable range over the next few months.
Mortgage Rates Are Hovering Around 6% Nationally
While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its policy decisions strongly influence them. Right now, mortgage rates are settling into the low-to-mid 6% range.
That’s a significant improvement from the 7%-plus rates we saw through much of 2024 and early 2025. However, it’s still well above the ultra-low pandemic years.
On January 26, 2026, the average 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage stood at 6.103%. That’s according to a report by Fortune, citing data from mortgage data company Optimal Blue.
That represents less than a basis point of change from the prior week, suggesting relative stability in the rate environment.
Meanwhile, Bankrate’s weekly survey showed an average 30-year fixed rate of 6.25% as of January 20, 2026. That’s up slightly from a three-year low of 6.18% reached the previous week.
Forecasters Expect Mortgage Rates to Stay Stable
Looking ahead, most major forecasters expect rates to remain near current levels. Fannie Mae’s January 2026 Housing Forecast (PDF) predicts that rates will sit at 6% for most of 2026 and 2027.
The monthly payment impact is real. According to the Bankrate report, the monthly payment comes to about $1,997. That’s roughly 23% of the typical family’s monthly income. That’s based on the national median existing-home price of $405,400 in December 2025 and a 6.25% mortgage rate with a 20% down payment.
Even half-point interest rate changes can reduce that payment by hundreds of dollars each month, which is why buyers are closely watching rate trends.
It’s also worth keeping rates in historical perspective. While 6% may feel high compared to pandemic-era lows, these rates are actually fairly typical when you look at the 1990s and early 2000s, Fortune reports.
How Interest Rate Changes Are Shaping the New Hampshire Seacoast Housing Market
National rate trends matter, but what really counts is how those changes are playing out right here on the Seacoast.
The good news is that we’re seeing some meaningful improvements, including the following:
- Increases in housing inventory.
- More realistic pricing.
- A stabilizing market
New Hampshire Seacoast Housing Inventory is Gradually Improving
After years of limited options, we’re finally seeing more homes available. According to our most recent analysis, homes for sale statewide rose 19.6% from August 2024 to August 2025, jumping from 2,705 to 3,235 homes.
The Seacoast is helping lead that shift, with new listings up 19.8% by September 2025. That’s based on our Fall 2025 housing market analysis.
This inventory increase is also at least somewhat connected to easing interest rates.
Many homeowners refinanced into mortgage rates below 3% during 2020 and 2021 and have been hesitant to trade those low payments for loans at roughly twice the rate. According to a 2024 report by the National Bureau of Economic Research, for each percentage point increase in the mortgage rate above a borrower’s current rate, the likelihood of them selling and moving declines by 7.7%.
As interest rate changes have drifted closer to 6%, more owners are reconsidering their plans. This is creating a noticeable bump in available homes and giving you more choices than you’ve had in years.
Price Increases Are More Manageable
The Seacoast remains a premium market for homes and vacation rental properties. While prices continue to climb, the pace has moderated significantly. Our 2026 analysis showed that, today, Seacoast properties typically close at about 99.7% of the list price, meaning more realistic pricing and room to negotiate.
Most national forecasts also point to modest appreciation in 2026.
“Home price growth will be minimal—roughly 2% to 3%—about the same as overall consumer price inflation,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, in a January 2026 interview.
“Generally, wage growth will be above that. So, it’s a year where people’s income begins to rise a little faster than consumer price inflation and home prices—and this is a welcoming development.”
For the Seacoast, this suggests continued value growth driven by the region’s strong fundamentals, such as coastal access, proximity to Boston and Portland, and exceptional quality of life. However, the wild swings of recent years are less likely.
Affordability Challenges Slow Down but Remain Challenging
New Hampshire’s Housing Affordability Index sat at just 55 in August 2025. According to a report by the New Hampshire Business Review, the Index had increased by January, 2026, but only to 58.
That means a buyer earning the median household income has only 58% of the money needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home.
While affordability remains tight, it’s no longer worsening at the dramatic pace we saw years ago. The hope is that, as inventory improves and price appreciation moderates, the market will find a more sustainable equilibrium.
What Interest Rate Changes Mean for Your 2026 Plans
Stepping into the 2026 Seacoast housing market, you can expect a landscape that’s still competitive but far more navigable than recent years. Significant interest rate changes are unlikely soon, so any shake-ups in the housing market will have to come from elsewhere.
For example, if inflation were to rise, buyers may be less likely to purchase a home due to a decrease in spending power. Inflation could also trigger an increase in interest rates.
Our advice:
- If you’re buying, take advantage of the increased inventory to be selective about location, condition, and features. Work closely with your lender to understand exactly what you can afford at current rates.
- If you’re selling, you still have a favorable environment. Buyers who were previously hesitant to take on higher-interest mortgages will be more willing to finance.
If you’re ready to explore your options in the Seacoast region, we’re here to help you navigate these changing conditions with confidence. At Madden Group, we know these communities inside and out, and we’re committed to helping you find the right path forward.
Contact us today to learn more.
